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The Wave Is Already Behind You. Are You Ready for It?
Why leading indicators, not lagging ones, are the difference between being caught off guard and being built to weather the storm.
Table of Contents
The Wave Is Already Behind You. Are You Ready for It?
Look at that image for a second. There are two ships facing the exact same wave. Same ocean. Same storm. Completely different outcomes.
The small boat in the foreground never had a chance — not because the wave came out of nowhere, but because by the time it arrived, there was nothing left to do. The big ship in the background? It was ready. It had been ready. Because the people running it were watching for the wave long before it formed.

The wave doesn't care when you notice it - only whether you were ready.
The Small Boat — Reacting when the wave is already here. No time to prepare, no margin to survive.
The Big Ship — Built and fortified to weather the storm, because you saw it coming and had time to act.
That image is exactly how I think about leading versus lagging indicators in business. The tidal wave is always there. The question is whether you're watching for it while you still have time to prepare, or whether you're going to find out about it when it's already on top of you.
Most businesses, if they're being honest, are the small boat. Not because they're poorly run, but because they're looking at the wrong numbers. They're watching the wave after it's formed instead of reading the conditions that create it. And that's what I want to dig into today.
Where This Comes From: EOS and the Scorecard
About three or four years ago, we started using EOS , the Entrepreneurial Operating System , and it genuinely changed how we run our firm. You've probably heard the old saying: work on the business, not in the business. EOS is the framework that actually makes that possible. It pulls you out of the daily grind and gives you the tools to zoom out, see the big picture, and lead with intention.
One of the cornerstones of EOS is the Scorecard , a weekly snapshot of key performance indicators that tells you exactly how your business is doing. My EOS implementer, Amy Johannesen, described it perfectly:
"Imagine you're on a beach on the other side of the world. The only thing you have to tell you how your business is doing are these numbers. That's what needs to be on your scorecard."
— Amy Johannesen, EOS Implementer
That framing stuck with me. And the real power comes from tracking those numbers week over week — because that's when you start to see the trends. The ripples in the water before the wave forms. Which brings me to the concept I want to dig into today.
What's the Difference?
A lot of the metrics people default to , the ones that feel most satisfying to look at , are actually lagging indicators. They're the result of everything that already happened. Your revenue is a lagging indicator. Your net income is a lagging indicator. By the time those numbers show up on a report, you're looking in the rearview mirror. The wave is already there.
That doesn't make them unimportant. We absolutely set goals around them. But if lagging indicators are all you're watching, you're always reacting, never anticipating. You're the small boat.
Leading indicators are different. They're the upstream inputs that predict your future results. They're the signals that, if you catch them early enough, give you a chance to steer, reinforce, and fortify before the wave arrives. That's how you become the big ship.
Leading Indicators (Predictive):
New leads coming in
Proposals submitted
Sales calls scheduled
New applications / inquiries
Renewal conversations initiated
AR days trend (early warning)
These tell you where you're headed. They give you time to act.
Lagging Indicators (Resultant):
Total revenue / sales closed
Net income
Occupancy rate
Cost of goods sold
Expense variances
Profit margins
These tell you where you've been. By the time they appear, the decisions are made.
Think about revenue as a lagging indicator. For a sale to hit the books, a whole chain of things had to happen first: someone found you, showed interest, went through a proposal process, said yes, and signed. Revenue is the finish line and you can't manage a race by staring at the finish line. You have to know what's happening on the track.
The same logic applies to net income. It's a lagging indicator of your revenue, your cost of goods, your expense management, your margins , all of it. Every one of those inputs has leading indicators of its own. Understanding that chain is how you stop being surprised by your financial results and start shaping them.
How Leading Indicators Flow Into Lagging Results:
🎯 Leads & Proposals → 🤝 Conversions & New Clients → 📈 Revenue → 💰 Net Income
A Real-World Example: Multifamily
Let's make this concrete. Multifamily operators are a big segment of our client base, so let's use that lens.
Almost every multifamily operator I talk to loves to discuss occupancy. And I get it — occupancy is a clean, clear number. But occupancy is a lagging indicator. By the time your occupancy drops, the decisions that caused that drop were made weeks or months ago.
So what are the leading indicators that actually predict where occupancy is headed? That's where the real insight lives.
Multifamily — Leading Indicators (Watch These):
Lease renewals initiated (or not)
New rental applications coming in
Maintenance requests per unit (sudden spikes)
Delinquency trends early in the month
Prospect inquiries & tour traffic
Notice-to-vacate submissions
Multifamily — Lagging Indicators (Result):
Occupancy rate
Total rental revenue
Collections / loss-to-lease
Net operating income (NOI)
Turnover rate (period over period)
Vacancy cost (make-ready expense)
Here's a specific example that really illustrates this. Say you have a unit where the resident has never once submitted a maintenance request. That's actually a leading indicator of a problem. Either they've given up submitting requests because they don't think you'll respond — which means they're quietly planning to leave — or something's wrong with the unit they haven't told you about. That single data point, if you're watching for it, gives you an opportunity to reach out, check in, and potentially save the renewal before it ever becomes a vacancy.
That's the mindset shift. When you really hone in on your leading indicators, it changes how you build your business — how you staff, how you budget, how you plan. You stop being reactive and start being strategic.
Coming Next Week — Part Two
Now that we've covered how to read the right signals, next week we're going to talk about the two — and I mean only two — numbers every business should be tracking as their primary leading indicators. They're not flashy. But they're the ones that will tell you, weeks in advance, exactly where your business is headed.
We're Growing — We're Hiring
Accounting Associate (Full-Time)
We are in the market for a new in-house accounting associate. This role is for someone who:
Wants to own client relationships, not just complete tasks
Takes pride in delivering clean, accurate work with zero quality issues
Enjoys solving problems, especially when things aren't perfectly organized
Communicates clearly and confidently with clients
Is coachable, humble, and aligned with our values — Leadership, Excellence, and Honesty — with a team-first mindset
Summer Intern Program
Every summer, we bring in 2 interns for an 8-week crash course inside our office. If you are — or know — someone in college studying accounting or finance who wants real-world exposure, this is it.
You'll rotate through the tax, accounting, and administrative functions of our entire 15-person firm. You'll help with real client work, sit in on real meetings, and leave with a real understanding of how a successful CPA firm operates.
You will not be stuck in the corner shredding papers. You will be in the middle of our office, learning the ropes.
Reply to this email and we'll connect you with Bree, our recruiting coordinator.
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